It will take awhile before camera enthusiasts realize the limitations of the memory stick, compared with the higher capacity CF. Sony does have one thing going for it, though not exclusive to Sony. Sony has very good optics, with zoom lenses that have much greater power than available on cameras such as Olympus and Nikon. But zoom lenses are just one feature. There's no substitute for big capacity memory when it comes to making high resolution images.
Where I see Sony capturing a fair portion of the market is (1) consumers satisfied with lower resolution applications, such as TV viewing, (2) insurance photos (cars, accidents, etc.), and (3) police (where a combination video and still, with modest resolution for small prints might meet their applications better than just a still camera).
But part of the attractiveness of the memory stick is tied to the availability of memory stick slots in computers, or the availability of a floppy disk slot that can accommodate the memory stick in a floppy adaptor. Not all existing computer systems can handle this with any greater ease than a flash card reader plugged into the USB slot. So, while the jury is still out, I think that the forces SanDisk is allied with can ultimately take the major share of the market. I don't see it as a question of one or the other, but simply which one will prevail with the greatest share. |