I read some dispiriting comments in the prior threads, but I see it thru rose colored glasses. Approximately 9M spent so far on patent litigation, but that covers all 4 trials thus far, if we seperate Mitsu's trial against AXC which they've won, and in which both companies swallowed lawyers fees, and the apparent, but surprising, news that it seems each of AXC's 3 infringement claims is going to be tried separately.
So 1st trial AXC won, out the lawyer fees.
2nd trial AXC won(at least so far) and already has almost recouped their total lawyer fees, plus future ongoing licensing fees now that they've been caught.
That leaves us with 2 other patents to really throw on the gravy.
Hmmm, one patent= 8M, 3 patent wins= 1X+ M. Of course nothing is for sure, but obviously more wins will really put them over the top of 9M, and I can't imagine the other 2 are over puny 1 or 2M amounts. I assume the whole lot together must be, would have to be, only makes sense to be, AT LEAST 12-13M, since AXC has spent 9M so far, and won 8 on the first leg of it.
Where it really gets exciting is when you realize they've probably already got nearly guaranteed interest earnings of 2M for 92, and recurring licensing fees of 10M +, plus this 8M if it stands, and we're already looking at likely 97 eps of ~$.50, and this figure doesn't include the altogether likelihood of at least some of:
more patent wins,
other co's meekly falling into line after mighty Mitsu's fall
lawyers fees repaid by hard headed Mitsu
possible punitive damages just to stick it to em (can a jury do this?)
regular eps from exploding DST line(was .35 in 96 from products alone)
Maxtor's KM 4Q licensing fees of maybe a nickel to .10
And analysts have 97 eps mean estimates in the $.50's, when we're already there just from the afore mentioned 3 items (of course, the 8M lawsuit isnt' 100% in the bag yet). That's why I still see cause for hoping for 97 eps of $.80+, maybe even 1.20
Just for your reference, Iomega's eps for 96-97 are forecasted to go from the .40s to the .80s, and its selling for the hi teens to low 20's. AXC is at 7. Any takers????
Ever hopeful (but not blindly bullish) James |
