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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Claud B who wrote (7006)10/26/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Cacaito  Read Replies (1) of 7041
 
Claud, zona is in big trouble, the party is over, the roadshow is over.

Joe P. is a good salesman, but he is not running "a science driven biotech".

1. zona did abandon the rest of research, to save money and layoff employees, not my word, it is zona's pr news.

2. zona did have problems in Brazil, I do not even know if it was ever "launched" in Brazil. The problems were at the time of the NDA retirement from FDA(in reality a rejection in disguise).

3. Phentolamine research was halted, check Senetek news, and they are not a "rival" they were trying to get the same drug approved. zona reported as brown fat accumulation problems, but Senetek reported "tumors". zona has not publicly said that the research was halted never mentioned tumors, but why would FDA halt research of Senetek with the zona rats data and not zona's?, my conclusion is that zona is not acknowledging this problem.

4. Mexico sales if any are non significant, last quarter report revenue from sales? zero to my knowdlege, if any please post.

5. Cash at hand is cash at hand $1 or $2 per share, please provide the actual amount, I only know the range.

6. Joe P. salary is way too high, the company is close to dissapearance, anything above $50,000 is way beyond his accomplishments, stocks and options, he deserve none (my view), if you know his salary please post. Compare it with the Vivus ceo and other directors, they lower their salary when the sales when down, and they have a product selling and big cash and more research. Fair? Joe P should made 30% of Vivus ceo salary(around $90,000). Let Joe P. has options valid only if he get sales and FDA approval, that is fair enough, But for the Roadshow? Well, he could be paid better in Hollywood, acting as good as this is very well reimbursed.

8. Shareholders rights adopted by xona's board is a fact, nothing new, many companies do it, and zona did it to protect its cash, nothing wrong with it.

7. Possibilities: well those were not facts, just guesses.

a.An extraordinary dividend and then close doors.

b. merge, buy, license,finance another small company or product is heavy work. Will Joe P. save face and do that? I strongly doubt it, but just in case he could try with this list: AMLN, NTII, PARS, LGND, VVUS, TRMS, RZYM, CRXA,xoma, ALLP.....big list could keep growing, all companies with real research and need for cash.

c. zona could go net (many real nets companies need cash), Joe could really shine in the net.

d. keep running the company carcass on the interest from the cash in the bank, drink coffe all day, on low expenses, or just let it go at the $20M a year burn rate (well it is probably lower now after the abandon research).

Finally, argue or guess, present any facts, but it is not fair since I took the easy part, much more difficult to find a brite spot here.

zona is a carcass at best.

if zona is ever for real, one could wait for better times, no rush, it is good investment at $0.5 if an extraordinary dividend is concocted.
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