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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 97.44

-1.2%

Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: SwampDogg who wrote (44002)	10/27/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) of 116762

That idea is the center of the "efficient market" theory That isn't the efficient market hypothesis. and it assumes that there is no such thing as selective disclosure. Selective disclosure has nothing to do with the earnings stock prices correlation and nothing to do with efficient market hypothesis. The term can't even be defined. Anything can effect stock prices instantaneously including what has or has not been disclosed. The persistent price reflects the company prospects. Also..the very reason that the market averages rise independently of bearish market breath is based on supply/demand. An observation of averages or of breadth is a synthetic exercise. These actions are not analytical. They don't tell you anything about what could happen. They only tell you what did happen. The averages represent some stocks. The breadth represents most stocks. A group of some stocks can diverge from the entire group without any justifiable conclusion being reached. It happens all the time. So which group is the one to watch? If the majority of stocks are falling, does that mean there are no good money making opportunities on the upside? You will find that approaching money making in the stock market with these prejudices will guarantee that you don't make any. Usually takes about 10 years of stock market experience before you see this. As far as derivatives go I do not think that it is a coincidence that the Yen has risen against the dollar for most of this year. I agree. Has nothing to do with derivatives. Didn't you hear Gecko? It's a zero-sum game. That means its effect is trendless. That means its effect does not contribute to or counter the trend. The incremental addition of its effect is the error in the time series. The expectation of error is zero. It is a surface term integral. The LTCM crisis and the rest of the Yen carry trades are in my view still being unwound. Unwinding in the yen is an every three months affair in perpetuity and whether LTCM is doing it or someone else, it has no effect on the material yen. Unwinding doesn't mean delivery for open market sale or the converse. Mostly it means delivering cash payments at opportune times when the yen is in correction to your liability. In this case the material yen is just the indicator just like a stock's price is merely an indicator for the pricing of an underlying option. The settlement takes place in numbers on bank accounts. Failure to pay means a lawsuit where the plaintiff who wins gets a judgement against another's physical property. Nothing to do with the Japanese Yen and usually not collectable. It is my belief that the same thing will happen with gold. What is wound in gold? So the market value of EBAY is over 19 Billion=Cosmic Value of over 19 billion=Physical value over 19 Billion If the market cap gets cut in 1/2...what happens to the cosmic value of EBAY? The market is saying it is relatively likely that EBAY will earn very good money. They pioneered their concept and that usually has a profound effect on market power. Haven't you heard all about the 900 lb gorilla? Everyone wants to own a gorilla. Why is that? MSFT showed why. You are arguing that the market is wrong, but you don't give a counter-argument except to say that in your judgement the stock isn't fairly valued. Fair apparently starts with your calculations which are still undisclosed. Also...there is a huge difference between an option on a listed equity and a complex future carry trade. The former has little relevance Please show me this huge difference.

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