Another gloomy piece of European gamesmanship....
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Excerpt:
"Fortress Europe"
Far from being a step in the direction of free trade, the EU is a regional trading block directed, on the one hand, against the USA and Japan, on the other hand it is an alliance of imperialist powers dedicated to the collective exploitation of the Third World. This neo-colonialist mode of exploitation is no less predatory than the overt plunder of the colonies realised in the past on the basis of direct military rule. In general, the same old colonies in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean are being sucked dry by the same old bloodsuckers. The only difference is that this robbery is effected "legally" through the mechanism of world trade by which the advanced capitalist countries of Europe exercise a joint domination of the ex-colonies, and are thereby spared the cost of direct rule, while continuing to extract huge surplus profits by exchanging more labour for less.
Europe indeed represents a formidable trading block, despite its relative decline. In fact, with an internal market worth approximately $8.4 trillion, it is actually 20 percent bigger than that of the USA. The main aim of the European capitalists is precisely to club together to try to protect this market against the competition of American and Japanese products. This engenders the wrath of the American capitalists who long ago dubbed the EU "Fortress Europe", a description that is not far from the mark. Given the lack of demand in Europe (BusinessWeek recently wrote about a "European recovery often indistinguishable from a recession."), exporting to the USA has become an essential lifeline. Given the rising value of the dollar and a falling D-mark, this poses a serious threat to American business interests. On the other hand, a recession in the USA will hit Europe hard, and even send it into a deep crisis. The present already high rates of unemployment will soar, and all the contradictions will be sharpened.
In one famous aside, Henry Kissinger was quoted as saying: "When I want to speak to Europe, whom do I call?" The formation of the EU makes it possible for the ruling classes of Europe to "speak with one voice" up to a point (at least in theory). Europe has clashed with Washington over many issues, most recently the Helms-Burton and D'Amato Acts which impose sanctions on non-US companies trading with Cuba, Iran or Libya. The tensions between Europe and the USA have not disappeared, and will inevitably grow in the coming period. For that reason, it is unlikely that the EU will formally break up. The European capitalists will want to hang together, in order not to end up hanging separately.
That said, the contradictions between the European states make it impossible for them even to agree on a common foreign policy. The growing contradictions between the interests of France and Germany are manifested ever more clearly. When Germany needed extra funds to finance the absorption of East Germany, it did not hesitate to raise interest rates without consulting Paris or any of its other partners, although with high rates of unemployment, a rise in interest rates was the last thing France needed. In the field of foreign policy, German intrigues played a big role in encouraging Croatia to declare its independence, thus provoking the break-up of Yugoslavia. This was completely opposed to French foreign policy, but Paris was forced not only to accept it, but to send troops to clear up the mess afterwards, while Germany sat with its arms folded.
The main sphere of influence of French imperialism is still in North Africa and the Mediterranean, whereas Germany looks East, and aspires to include its new client states in Eastern Europe in the EU - a move which would be a direct threat to the future of the Common Agricultural Policy, which is vital to French agricultural interests.
In March of this year, they failed to agree on a policy in relation to Albania. Italy and Greece, with the backing of Denmark and France, wanted to send a large European force to Albania. But a majority of countries, led by Britain, Germany and Sweden, opposed it. Eventually, the Italians and Greeks sent troops anyway. But the others stayed well out of it.
The recent visit of President Clinton to London and his well-publicised "friendship" with Tony Blair and the alleged revival of the "special relationship" with Britain is also no accident. Washington would like a reliable ally inside the EU, and sees Britain as the most likely - if not the only - applicant for the job. It is precisely this "relationship" with the USA which traditionally made France suspicious of Britain, which will not prevent them drawing closer as allies against Germany in the next period.
In an attempt to frighten the opponents of EMU into line, Kohl even raised the spectre of a future war in Europe: "The policy of European integration," he said, "is in reality a question of war and peace in the 21st century." (The Independent 3/2/96). Kohl demagogically appeals to "internationalism": "We have no desire to return to the nation state of old. It cannot solve the great problems of the 21st century. Nationalism has brought great suffering to our continent." (ibid.) What he means is that Britain, France and all the others should set aside their nationalism and humbly accept the leadership of German capitalism.
However, the others have a somewhat different view! A diametrically opposite view was put forward in a recent book (The Rotten Heart of Europe) written by Bernard Connolly, a senior Brussels bureaucrat in charge of putting EMU into practice who warns that the attempt to move to monetary union can lead to a sharpening of national conflict in Europe and even war. In highly lurid language, Connolly warns: "Still the cynicism of the French technocrats, traitors to their own people, and the arrogant, overbearing, menacing zeal of the German federalists, not to mention the grandiose ambitions of Helmut Kohl, remain on collision course. The result of this clash of forces cannot yet be predicted with any precision. But it will be extremely unpleasant for the peoples of Europe." Connolly's apocalyptic turn of phrase is exaggerated, but as a high placed official, there is no doubt that he is saying out loud what others are thinking. In the corridors of power in London and Paris, there is persistent murmuring about the intentions of Germany. The clash of interest exists and will get even more bitter as the contradictions of EMU unfold in practice.
In the last half century, the idea of war has receded in the consciousness of the masses in Europe. Yet a hundred years ago the anarchist Kropotkin pointed out that "war is the natural condition of Europe." And historically that was true. Only the peculiar balance of forces that arose from the second world war meant that war - at least war between the major powers - was off the agenda. Nevertheless, we are now entering into a new and troubled period in history. The tensions that now exist between the United States, Japan and Europe in another period would have already led to war. But with the existence of nuclear weapons, and also the horrific array of other barbarous means of destruction - chemical and bacteriological arms - all-out war between the major powers would signify mutual annihilation, or at least a price so terrible as to make war an unattractive proposition, except to ignorant and unbalanced generals.
Nevertheless, the war in Bosnia was a reminder of the kind of nightmare scenario that can occur if the working class fails in its historic mission to change society. Kohl's warnings in that sense have a certain symptomatic significance. In the convulsive period that lies ahead, the European workers will have many opportunities to transform society. But if they fail, at a certain stage there can be a movement in the direction of reaction. It is most unlikely that this could take the form of a classical fascist regime as in the 1920s and 30s. The ruling class burned its fingers badly with Hitler and Mussolini. They will not surrender state power to a fascist madman. But it is quite possible that they will try to move in the direction of a Bonapartist regime - a military police dictatorship like that of Pinochet in Chile. Under modern conditions, such a regime can have a ferocious character. Under conditions of extreme crisis, it cannot even be theoretically excluded that this might lead to war in Europe, although such a development is unlikely. Nevertheless, the fact that the possibility was publicly raised by Kohl and also echoed by Jupp‚ [France's former PM, currently Mayor of Bordeaux (RPR party)] is an indication of a profound change in the situation. Under present-day conditions not war between the European states, but class war in every country of Europe is the prospect that now opens up. [...]
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WWIII.... A clash between Laissezfaire America and Neofascist Europe?? Place your bets!
Gus. |
