G'day all - hi F.B., if you check out Maverick's posting history, you may realize that is not his point <g>. Back to the topic, without coloration, DWDM is only a subgroup of the fiber optics market, both of which is expanding. So, there is enough for a lot of players. Does that mean NT, or any other player, for that matter, should not actively go after every major contract, of course it should. The reality is that the telcos [especially behemoths like T, WCOM, and SBC,] will hedge their bet. [As I ve analyzed this many times before,] T and WCOM are still reeling from their respective debacle, there is no way they are going to put all the eggs in one basket. People think NT, or LU or others, can get exclusive contracts probably are more stockholders of the company than the telecom build out planners!
Another case in point, remember CIEN near death experience after LU preannounced its 80 channels DWDM product. Well, CIEN lives!
One thing though, while I actually don't follow the general market of DWDM, NEC is one from the left field. I shouldn't be surprised though NEC and HIT etc are not 2nd bananas, technologically. One should look at what HIT did to IBM with the former Skyline mainframe. So, in a way, thanks to Maverick, indeed it is a warning shot across the bow. But NT, LU, ALA, CIEN etc should all be concerned.
best, Bosco |
