BOA report out today on PMC and ATM
Uses LU and NT comments as evidence of continuing robustness in the ATM market. Alex is a good analyst and although his note is not really new news, is does point out the health of some of PMC's end markets. I was on the NT and LU calls and they were indeed very bullish.
10:01am EDT 27-Oct-99 BofA Montgomery (Gauna, Alex) PMCS
PMCS: LUCENT AND NORTEL REPORT SURGING ATM DEMAND; RAISING ESTIMATES.
BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES ** MONTGOMERY DIVISION ** BANC OF AMERICA SECURITIES
PMC-SIERRA, INC.* STRONG BUY
October 26, 1999 SEMICONDUCTORS NASDAQ: PMCS
Alex Gauna Earnings Change
DJIA: 10302
S&P 500: 1282
PRICE: $85.00 FYE 12/31 1998 A 1999 E 2000 E
12-MONTH TARGET PRICE: $150 EPS
52-WEEK RANGE: $112-21 Q1(MAR) $0.14 $0.18 A $0.29
FULLY DILUTED SHARES O/S: 77.3 MM Q2(JUN) 0.15 0.23 A 0.31
MARKET CAPITALIZATION: $6,570.5 MM Q3(SEP) 0.15 0.25 A 0.33
AVG. DAILY VOL. (3 MOS.): 1,441,563 Q4(DEC) 0.22 0.28 0.36
SECULAR EPS GROWTH: 40% FISCAL YR $0.66 $0.93 $1.29
FY 1999E REVENUES: $259.7 MM P/E N/M 91.4 65.9
MARKET CAP./REVENUES: 2530% P/E/G 322% 228% 165%
9/99 TOTAL DEBT: N/A PREV. EST. $0.92 $1.25
9/99 LTD/TOTAL CAP.: N/A
9/99 ROAE: 40.6%
9/99 SHAREHOLDERS' EQ.: $208.9 MM
9/99 BOOK VALUE/SHARE: $10.74
DIVIDEND/YIELD: NONE
* Banc of America Securities LLC currently maintains a market in this security.
Surging ATM Demand, Coupled With SONET, Should Drive PMC-Sierra Performance
* PMC-Sierra (Strong Buy - $85) dominates in ATM, and Lucent and Nortel are
reporting booming demand. ATM switches, where PMC-Sierra is entrenched, are
proliferating in the telecom core.
* We are raising our December quarter and year 2000 estimates. We are
increasing our December quarter EPS estimate $0.01 to $0.28, and our fiscal
2000 EPS estimate by $0.03 to $1.29.
* PMC-Sierra acquisitions of IGT and Abrizio create a strong roadmap. From its
current leadership position at the physical layer, we expect PMC-Sierra chips
to proliferate in the ATM switching fabric at SONET OC-3, OC-12, and OC-48
data rates.
* Wireless is coming on as a driver for the broadband network. PMC-Sierra, both
as an ATM provider, and through its multi-channel Vortex chipset features, is
being heavily deployed in base stations.
* Goodbye Class 5 switch, hello convergence of voice, data, and video. ATM
technology is the only carrier class (99.999% reliability) way to converge
voice, data, and video. PMC's products are the most compelling, offer the
widest range of speeds, and deliver the highest layer capabilities.
Its Hard To Argue With 700% Increase In Demand For Infrastructure Capacity.
The impact of wireless traffic moving onto the Internet, deployment of high
speed cable modems/xDSL technologies, increasing numbers of individuals logging
onto the Internet and staying logged on longer, and the explosive growth of E-
commerce all represent key drivers behind a 700% increase in demanded capacity
in the telecommunications infrastructure, according to Nortel which reported
yesterday. PMC-Sierra, because of its exceptionally strong positioning in ATM,
SONET, and wireless base station applications, is uniquely positioned to
capitalize on the infrastructure build out to meet this demand. Gross margins
of 79.4% and moving higher, attest to the value of PMC-Sierra products in
broadband convergence technologies.
Our Near Term and Long Term Expectations for the Company Continue to
Brighten. We know of no other broadband ASSP (Application Specific Standard
Product) semiconductor provider that has been enabling the broadband age
longer, or with more alacrity, than PMC-Sierra. It's chipsets dominate the ATM
Phy (physical layer), and are also dominant in the adaptation layer (layer 2
applications such as policing, monitoring, controlling, routing, and traffic
management) where products such as the RCMP and ATLAS families are peerless.
With the IGT and Abrizio acquisitions creating a clear roadmap from these
entrenched areas to a new wave of opportunities in higher layer switching
applications, we are taking this opportunity to raise both out near term and
longer term outlook for the company. We are raising our December quarter EPS
estimate $0.01 to $0.28 from $0.27, and our fiscal 2000 EPS estimate $0.03 to
$1.29 from $1.26.
The Significance of ATM Should not be Underestimated. ATM (Asynchronous
Transfer Mode) is the world's only reliable means of delivering converged
voice, data, and video through the telecom infrastructure. In their September
quarter conference calls, both Lucent and Nortel highlighted the rapid build
out in the ATM core that is replacing the classic Class 5 switches that were
designed to carry intermittent telephone traffic and not continuously streaming
data traffic. ATM delivers the smart bandwidth capacity the world needs today,
or in other words, provides a switching technology capable of distinguishing
voice, data, and video, and delivering them with the appropriate levels of
priority. What's more, wireless network builders, realizing the future of
mobile technology involves delivering broadband data as well as voice, are
deploying ATM technologies in base station technologies. Through its ATM
leadership position, and through features available in its recently released
Vortex chipset, PMC-Sierra is uniquely positioned to enable the wireless
Internet. |
