nice comments,
re: "Hopefully market share will stabilize around 25% for next year". I've been listening, for several years, to predictions for market share for the various stents by various companies. These predictions seen to change quite a bit, and not be very good. Basically, I don't think there is any good way to know ahead of time. I think the safest thing to do is wait till forward predictions are pessimistic, for a company that has a decent long-term track record, and then assume there will be a "reversion to the mean".
re: "I would no longer call BSX's balance sheet a mess." Well, only by comparison to other recent reports. Good companies grow the company out of cash flow, not new debt/equity. This was the main reason I held off buying the company till the stock got this low. The balance sheet has to show steady improvement, or I will sell.
It is encouraging that the stock didn't go down today. Usually, when a CEO tells analysts, "revenue and profits for the next 3 quarters need to be revised down", the stock gets cut off at the knees. Hopefully, all the bad news is finally in the stock. Reading back over the analyst recommendations through 1999, there are lots and lots of them saying, "value play with the stock in the low 30s." Recently, I don't hear any of them now saying, "value play with the stock in the teens." Sign of capitulation?
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