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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: who wrote ()	10/27/1999 2:13:00 PM
From: The Verve	Read Replies (2) of 25814

Just got off the phone with IR regarding CDMA. BTW, I have to say I really like LSI's IR dept. and their IR manager. He's a top notch professional and does his job very well. It's going to be difficult to figure out how CDMA is going to affect LSI's bottom line because we don't have all the values to help determine that, but we can make some assumptions. The industry forecast for total handset sales is 254 million in 1999, expected to grow to 1 billion in 2003. In 1999, approximately 37 million of those are CDMA equipped handsets. CDMA handset growth is expected to grow 70% a year through 2003. Let's do the math... 1999 37 million 2000 63 million 2001 108 million 2002 184 million 2003 313 million It's too early in the game to determine LSI's CDMA market share, but we all know there are only a few players in this arena. Does LSI have a fair shot of commandoing 30% by 2001? At the 2nd quarter CC Wilf mentioned LSI had the 'best' CDMA chip so you have to assume 30% is a good number to start with. LSI just began production last quarter, so it'll probably take some time for LSI to start growing into their market share. If we take 30% market share of 108 million CDMA chips in 2001 we get about 32 million chips. The sales price of the CDMA chip is not yet public info so we're not going to be able to figure out the yearly revenue CDMA will bring, but now that we have an idea of the current size and growth potential of the CDMA market, anyone want to take a wild swing at the chip sales price and help figure out what the bottom line is going to be? Ron

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