Stefan; FWIW
The SP-400 & DJ-30 are below their 200dma, the Naz is breaking down through a cluster of moving averages, but is well above its 200. All 3 are struggling right now with the 13 dma (I use 13/26, instead of the more usual 10/20). So they're on the oversold side. Market certainly is going lower <g>, but am wondering how low.
I don't watch the bellweathers like you do! It's interesting what you said about temperament, but in my case, it could just be that I haven't gotten to that point yet.
Briefing has this to say about the ECI
>>>13:35 ET Dow +24, Nasdaq -24, S&P +5.16: Volume is good today, but the trading action has been downright dull for the most part... Looking ahead to the ECI tomorrow, Briefing.com is expecting a 0.7% increase which is below consensus expectations of a 0.9% gain... The possibility exists, however, that a bearish number could be viewed in a positive light by bond traders, content that the ECI is the final nail in the coffin, resulting in the bond market's improvement on expectations that the Fed will tighten, and then move to the sidelines, providing a window for some real money and retail buying, as well as a flurry of short covering... Should this scenario play out, the collateral damage in the equity market is likely to be less severe as a drop in long-term rates, and the sense the Fed will soon be out of the picture will be appeasing factors... Thus, it is possible to have a bearish ECI report prompt a knee-jerk selloff only to be followed by a noticeable rebound effort.
Italics mine. Lord, it's confusing!
I also like very much Harry's site www.optionsource.com It has a range of commentators, so there is no one opinion. But, in general, they seem to be leaning to rally in the wings. Sure - after there's a big drop!
So let's say I would rather expect some drop before that rally, but probably not to lower lows (watch the NAZ fall 100+ tomorrow!). It seems any drop can serve if your timing is right. Which mine isn't.
I keep trying. In fact, I don't think I'm as clear about where I'm going as you are. Those were good responses when Clint was teasing about the rally.
He pulls us all up.
May I ask where you check the bond market during the day?
best wishes
Dorothy
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