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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 114.87

+3.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: SwampDogg who wrote (44052)	10/27/1999 3:32:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (4) of 116811

Supply and demand are abstractions created by us academics in order to rationalize keeping us on the payroll. I challenge anyone anytime to come up with a meaningful schedule of supply and demand for anything. I'm well aware that corporations and others do this all the time, but it is only busy work. By the time you've measured these variables they have profoundly changed. Sometimes measuring them changes them. First we act and then we reflect upon why we acted. This is supply and demand characterization. It's a posteriori. I try to measure the demand and supply for stock in the stock market via every trade analysis. I discovered long ago that I had to invoke quantum mechanics to make a model which had some value. The quantum mechanics model only has some value though as long as the elastic states of the eigenfunctions persist. The state space is entirely random and you have to make that as a beginning assumption. You start with the efficient market hypothesis as axiomatic. Divergences away from equilibrium, quantum fluctuations as it were, must persist to have an expectation of entering a new price regime. It is similar to transition probabilities in atomic orbitals. You might as well get a day job. Low float is irrelevant. Public isn't conditioned to buy Internet. They're terrified of it because of the presumed high valuation. It is the sophisticated big institutional players who have the conviction and run them up. In my judgement over the long term they will be completely justified and you will never admit that you were a fool not to buy at what appears to be the top. You better find a different conditioning or you will miss the biggest thing since railroads or airlines. Get away from gold and join up with the crowd. That's where the big money lies. Just consider how hard that is for you to do. Impossible, so that is the way to go.

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