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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: tejek who wrote (77356)10/27/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (2) of 1585088
 
ted, how could CuMine shortage be due to high demand? The die size is 2/3 as big as today's PIII, Intel should be able to make 40M of these. There are four other potential causes for a shortage:
1. It takes time to reconfigure fab equipment from 0.25æ production to 0.18æ production. Not likely because this should only cause a 2 week hiccup in production so why didn't they just wait two more weeks for the intro?
2. Chipset shortage causing motherboard shortage. This is a cause, but not the only one. There's no i820 and VIA's production is limited to about 5% of Intel's. No one wants to use the i810e. What I don't understand is this: if there's really a BX chipset shortage, why aren't these chipsets being allocated to the PIII700E, PIII650E and PIII600E, where they will make the most profit?
3. Yield problems -- hard to imagine that Intel would have yield problems
4. Intel simply pre-announced the CuMine to avoid "embarrassment." Probably CuMines are only starting to trickle out of one of the 4 0.18 plants. (They would convert them serially to avoid a big hiccup in supplies.)

So explanation #4 makes the most sense. If so, Intel really shot themselves in the head by doing this because all these announcements for vardware (vaporware hardware) killed demand for their other products. Plus, they had to lower prices on the stuff they're still selling with no revenue coming from the new vardware.

Its too early to tell whether there is also a yield or a speed distribution problem. Intel may just be inventory-ing the current trickle of CuMines waiting for the chipset problem to be fixed, especially the high speed parts.

Petz
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