Carl,
Gloat away -- but it won't make us like you any better <g>.
Just to keep you humble, check out what Sherry Garber was saying back in pre-historic times:
From Jan 15
Sheri Garber, memory analyst at Semico Research (Phoenix), said that as of this month, several OEMs had not received enough chip sets and RDRAMs to begin their testing programs. Dell Computer (Austin, Texas) was one of the few that had, leaving its competitors chomping at the bit.
"As of last week, Dell was probably in a unique situation," Garber said. "Our info is that the other major OEMs, including Compaq, IBM and HP, were still waiting to get all the components they needed.
"By 2000, perhaps in the second quarter, things will be better," she said. "But for this year I think we are looking at a painful situation."
I think this one's from July or August:
Sherry Garber, a senior vice president at Semico Research Corp. (Phoenix), said recent events have led her to question whether the Rambus architecture will ever really get off the ground. The cost of manufacturing an RDRAM remains too high, and the market is shifting toward commodity desktops at a very rapid pace, she said. That makes Rambus a niche market even into 2001.
Garber said Semico's latest estimates call for 182.9 million Rambus memory units to be shipped next year, nearly all at the 128-Mbit density. That will account for only 6.2 percent of total DRAM units shipped. In 2001, according to Semico, that ratio will increase to only 7.8 percent.
By then the 256-Mbit generation will start to become a factor. "SDRAM manufacturers already are coming down the learning curve on 256-Mbit DRAMs for the server market, and Rambus won't have a 256-Mbit density part for quite some time" Garber said. "Can they be ready with a 256-Mbit RDRAM by 2002? That's the fear among the RDRAM vendors." |
