Hi Lizzie Tudor; Regarding AMZN's sales for 4Q99... I think that the $600mm to 1 billion figures are way inflated, and that AMZN will disappoint sharply. I think you will find that most analysts are predicting about $500mm for the final quarter.
My own estimate for 4Q99 is around $508mm. I should note that I predicted the 3Q99 sales to within two parts in one thousand with this post, #reply-10755819 , which also includes predictions for 4Q99 and beyond.
The above prediction was made back in early July. The mathematics is completely explained in the post. It was remarkably accurate for 3Q99, but I don't expect it to remain that accurate. But since the 3Q99 prediction was spot-on, I do not think I need to update the model. (If it works, don't fix it.)
Within one year, the growth story at AMZN will very likely be completely over, and the stock will be in single digits, in my opinion. If my model of their sales growth holds, the drop in the stock price is inevitable.
By the way, the trend in gross profits is even worse than the trend in sales. Since AMZN is a revenue story, rather than an earnings story, I chose to analyze the revenue rather than the earnings.
-- Carl |
