You're absolutely right Maher. Corel can say or do what ever they like, but no one really cares right now. Just look at the volumes. Shows you how much interest is out there, ... not much ! We've been in an 8.50 to 9.00 trading range for a few months now. As long as sales don't crash in the next little while, this is probably the bottom for the stock.
I think the bottom line will improve over the next few quarters along with the cash position. Going forward, it looks like Corel will be operating in a 65 million expense container. Analysts think sales will be 111 million for Q2, and 440 million for the year. If we use 68% margins and 35% for tax rates, Q2 earnings should be 0.09, and year end earnings should be 0.38. Analysts are not using a 65 million expense model (something higher for some reason), and are projecting earnings of 0.03 for Q2, and 0.16 for year end.
You be the judge and predict the direction of the stock price if sales meet projections and expenses are contained at 65 million per quarter.
I have my own opinion for Q2. I think the graphics division will produce 40 million in revenues, and productivity will produce 80 million. Expenses will be 65 million minus the 1 million from Hoffmann. I'll stick to 68% margins and 35% tax rates, and say they get $120,000 interest for the cash they currently have. Therefore earnings will be 0.16 fully diluted.
May'be we should start an earnings poll on this thread, and get everyone to post sales, margin, expense, and tax rate projections for Q2. Sort of like whats being done on the BRE-x thread with regards to amount of gold at Busang. I am willing to track our Corel poll if everyone is willing.
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