Jeff, you asked for me to do a bit of sharing. . .well. . .no holds barred?
This post may be unnecessary to some [apologies to HOME thread readers here. . .as this is all redundant]. . .but lately I have heard from many fence straddlers. . . not sure whether to dip their toe in the water or just dive right in. . . .so please allow me to present my views of the markets, in the smallest nutshell I can. . .[which will probably be a dozen or more paragraphs. . .sorry.] Here goes:
I am a bull. . .always have been. From April 15th to October 15th I was a "bull in bears clothing". . . taking a defensive position and staying away from the volatile stocks and high fliers. . . and playing things like gold stocks on July 28 and broadbands through the summer. But now the costume is off and I have been buying up these bargains like the sales I remember downtown at the big department stores, where at the store opening on sale days, the "ladies" would shove their way to the sale racks for the best bargains. . . knocking down anything in their way.
That is how I have been buying MMPT, ETYS, HLTH and LQID over the past month. . .and BBY, WMT, HRBC, etc. the past few days. Some truly great stocks started getting major haircuts in the past few days. . . and it got me thinking of what they all had in common. . . .well. . the thing was, the stocks that have been taking a beating of late are all the ones that I would love to be holding through the entire year of 2000. Which leads me to believe this is a manipulated bear trap.
Retailers like BBY and CC that will make a killing off DVD this Christmas. . . dirt cheap today. . .for no real reason. . . drug retailers like RAD and CVC suddenly given haircuts, just before their biggest season by far goes into full force. . . ANF, perhaps the premiere mall retailer. . . [what Gap used to be]. . . given a haircut when earnings are leaked "way" too soon. . . .[I guess a few hours before the closing bell is acceptable, but not one week. . .<smirk>]
Then there are the high-techs. . .INTC, MSFT, HWP. . .at bargain prices suddenly. . . and broadbands like ANTC, CNXT, HLIT and HEAR selling at a fraction of their price just a few weeks ago. . . or internets like MMPT, which just came down about 10 points prior to releasing stellar earnings. . . I hope they drop more. . .I'll buy them again. . . .like I have been doing with my B2B favorite, HRBC. . .sold a bit at 22. . .but have been buying down through the teens. . .today was near 13 bucks. . . And there are many others. . . you've all seen them.
And at some point, you must ask yourself why? Why are all the very BEST companies, selling off at cheap prices. . . did they suddenly stumble into some bad light?
What changed? Fundamentally nothing did. Nobody believes the stories the anal-ysts have drummed up on this hot crop of future winners. So why the sudden drop? Could it be as easy as broker/fund manager manipulation to get some cheap shares before we start running north in November? And could this be a bear trap. . . luring them in, just before the markets get flooded with money into these, arguably . . .the best of the best???
Yes. . .the bulls are worn out. . . who wouldn't be after this wild volatility?. . . big gains one day are more than erased the next. The thing is this. . . at some point you must ask yourself whether you are a bull or a bear. . . and if you are a bull. . to what degree?. . . And to the degree that you are a bull. . your portfolio should be reflected accordingly. . . in proportion to your bullish conviction. . . .and if it isn't. . .then why not? It certainly isn't for a lack of bargains!
You originally asked me to share some picks, Jeff. . .and I have sort of done so, through the course of this long post. . .but rather than try to sell your board on particular picks . . . I felt it better to take the time to splash some water in everyone's face. . .and say. . . "If you are a bull, then act like it." [not to say that anyone here is not acting the way they should. . .but meant strictly as a friendly reminder.]
This is a wake up call. There are plenty of great companies that I would love to own next year. . . .sitting at bargain prices presently. . . but I have a strong feeling that they won't be sitting at those prices very long. . . and I'll start getting the letters that say, "I could kick myself for not buying" this stock or that. To which I will respond, "so then go kick yourself. . . I tried to get you to buy, but you wouldn't listen to me."
So consider this opportunity to load your portfolios with the stocks you have admired from afar. . .even if it is a nominal amount at first. . . I doubt we will have another chance to buy at these levels for a long long time to come.
As for market predictions, [this is all old news for some that read my thread] I expect a major rally in November, leading to a January effect sometime in the last two weeks of November. . . .[last year was Dec 7 and 8]. . . we will see a brief and perhaps rather deep selloff during December on Y2K fears. . .but rest assured the selling will not be from this group. . . Rather there will be a small group of blue chippers that will hold their gains right through to the new year. It will mostly be small caps and mostly ignored stocks that get sold off sharply. .
But come January, get ready for the biggest bull run rally in American history . . . and for those so inclined. . . an even bigger bull run for many foreign countries. . .especially Asia, Europe and Emerging markets. . . as the dramatic improvements to communications and inventory control [mostly due to fibre optics and the internet] begin to reflect in sharply increased productivity. . . I expect to see amazing increases in bottom lines of many foreign tech and other stocks.
I expect the good news from the many different countries will fuel America's bull run. . .and the year 2000 will go down as a banner stock market year. . . .
I am standing on this soap box to say don't be left behind. . .it will never happen again. Plan your trades. . . then trade your plan. . . I am planning to be mostly long-term holding. . . and only allowing under 10 percent of port to swing trading.
Best wishes to all. . . .and to all a good trade. <g>
Rande |
