iceburg,
interesting post.
you are absolutely right. if i could buy this stock at 4, i'd rather do that than buy less stock at 8. but hey, who is to tell me that 4 is the basement. at 4, i'll probably hear advice asking me to wait till it gets to 2. valid advice, but it makes investing impossible.
having, at one time, traded mortgage-backed securities for a living (in a rather turbulent market), i know that market timing is probably the most difficult thing in the world. what works instead, is having a strong view (based on reason), and having patience while punters bet for an eighth or a quarter. yeah, i know about discipline and cutting losses, but that is a very different advice from a suggestion to time the market.
so, while it hurts when daily mark-to-market stares me in my face, i guarantee you it'll hurt immensly greater if i waited for lower and lower prices to establish positions and never got a chance to do so in the completely unanticipated (they always are unanticipated !!) upswing in stock price, and i am left playing catchup.
so thats that on that.
p.s. will be delighted to buy more at 4. will also be delighted if we never get anywhere close to it.
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