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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum
WDC 179.56+0.7%Dec 24 12:59 PM EST
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To: Sawtooth who wrote (7267)10/28/1999 11:42:00 AM
From: Mark Madden  Read Replies (2) of 9256
 
"In other words, IYO, are we now in just another iteration of the cycle or has a fundamental change taken place in some other way?"

The sector has continually cycled. There have been shortages of drives that put them on allocation several times in the past. None of the down cycles have been this long or this deep. In all the down cycles I have wondered if there would ever be another up-cycle. IMO there will be another up-cycle this time based on broadband communications but I have no idea when it will occur.

Broadbband communications (optical cables) are presently opening up in the communications "backbone" from city to city. They are connecting large companies first, creating good demand for enterprise drives. The "last mile" communications will connect small businesses and homes with connections such as cable modems and DSL modems. This area is growing at a tremendous rate but it will still take time.

Broadband communications will enable us to transfer pictures and sound that could be stored on hard drives. Data could be moved over cables instead of on trucks carrying plastic disks. Movies could be sent over your modem and stored on disk drives until you wish to view them. IMO this revolutionary change will restore demand for disk drives.
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