Why?? Japan has more than Y2K to deal with.
They have an quickly aging demographic profile that will result in 25% of their population being over 65 within 12 years (currently it's 1 in 6), a continuing buget deficit, and quite likely achieving the status of largest debtor nation on earth before all is said and done with. On top of that, Japan Inc. will likely be severely downsizing their workforce and output, ala Nissan, thus further dampening consumer confidence there.
Although the yen is currently strong, it is quite possible that much of this has been due to the unwinding of hedge fund positions and deleveraging in anticipation of Y2K fears, thus reducing their exposure to sudden economic turmoil. It is artificially high, IMO, and very detrimental to Japan's economic health, and certainly does not reflect the problems that have yet to face.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think we'll see continuing problems in HK and many of the other Asian nations over the next two-4 months, since it is likely there will be a recession early next year as US customers burn through their Y2K contingency inventories of spare parts and materials.
We'll see.. but that is what I'm expecting.
Regards,
Ron |
