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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (44259)10/28/1999 12:41:00 PM
From: Skeet Shipman  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
Bill.

The BTDers are buying again. I am surprised at the bond's reaction to this report.

Is the GDP report something to celebrate? Here are some sobering statistics from the report.

Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 5.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the second.

Real exports of goods and services increased 12.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 17.2 percent, compared with an increase of 14.4 percent.

Real disposable personal income increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- decreased from 2.5 percent in the second quarter to 2.1 percent in the third.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the second. However, the use of the Fisher formula may be biasing the chain deflator by under estimating the effect of the increasing import prices? It also may effect other items, i.e. autos, because of the weaknesses in the third-quarter of 1998. I am unsure on this issue; so I'll wait until the more reliable report, Nov. 24th, before celebrating too much.

Skeet
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