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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 234.70-1.2%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: Bearded One who wrote (82190)10/28/1999 1:35:00 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
Hi Bearded One,

AMZN is really a pure play on the growth of ecommerce just like AOL was a proxy for the growth of web users a few years ago. There is most definitely a business to be had in ecommerce, DELL has proven this and AOL is proving it and the world is adapting to it. I still don't see how any of the arguments against AMZN are any different than the gripes vs AOL a few years ago. AMZN will eventually figure out how to monetize 25mm accounts just like AOL has.

Q3 was not a huge quarter for AMZN but it wasn't bad. More importantly, Q2 was outright bad so Q3 was really a pretty nice turn. I got long this stock during Q3 and quite content with Q3 results. My point is that if you wait for the company to surprise you with the business model, you are going to be buying in at $50 or $100 billion valuation. All the doubters who have shorted this stock based on a faulty biz model have been proven wrong by the market just like AOL shorts did. AMZN should not be valued on what they are showing on the P&L and balance sheet right now, they should be measured on their ability to monetize the eventual 25-50mm accounts they get. Bezos has been ahead of the curve, nobody can argue with that. During Q4, they should extract $30-35 out of each account they have ever signed up. That is a very significant number and 16mm accounts will be very attractive to all sorts of companies wanting to get into the ecommerce act.

Explain to me what you think the problem with the vision is at AMZN if you get a chance.




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