Observations to Marantz & all:
Go back and look at what Madeleine Albright actually said. She directly mentioned China, Malaysia and Canada, and said she was unhappy with the oil companies and the countries which allowed the oil companies to develop the oil while the fighting was going on. And there is a building public outcry over all three companies - plus Lundin, Trafigura, Shell, AGIP, Roll'n Oil, Goldman Sachs, Price Waterhouse Coopers, et al.
Check out the Investor's Business Daily on October 5, 1999 (Is China Stock a Security Risk? Critics Fret Over Market Links to Rogue Nations). There is a growing outcry over CNPC's desire to raise $10 billion in an IPO and get listed on the NYSE.
So don't think TLM is getting singled out. Far from it.
And to answer the "TLM and the others have no influence over Sudanese public policy" issue - I think the answer is "yes and no". No, they don't directly have control over what the GOS spends its money on - but they do bear responsibility for giving the money to the GOS in the first place - which is at least $450 million annually (according to the GOS' own public statements). And based upon the GOS' own statements, that is more money than the GOS has been spending on the war ($400 million annualized).
As to TLM's "if we weren't there, someone else would do it" - that's a wonderful platitude, but is not correct. CNPC could not take up the $500 million slack which TLM contributed because they don't have that much excess money (which is why they want to do the IPO on the NYSE). Petronas doesn't have the money - due to their other capital expenditure commitments and the economic problems in Asia. Lundin is too small. The major's wouldn't touch it because of the country risk. And CNPC has demonstrated that without TLM's people and technology, they can't find oil in Sudan (Cej said that before TLM took over, and TLM's engineers are better, by all accounts). So CNPC needed TLM if the project was to be completed, despite TLM's comments to the contrary.
Bottom line - giving a regime like the NIF an additional $450 million to spend (which is what all the aforementioned firms are doing) before there is a lasting peace gives the NIF the opportunity to do just what it did the first week the oil started flowing - purchase 20 T-55 tanks from Poland. |
