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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 679.70+0.7%4:00 PM EST
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To: donald sew who wrote (31740)10/28/1999 7:45:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Don, i agree...it's probably still too early too be 100% confident of new highs across the board for the very reasons you mention. in any case, i believe the dip comes next. ultimately the anomaly of sector rotation without broad-based progress still calls for a capitulation sell-off at some point. presumably when no-one expects it. late November/early December seem ideal candidates time-wise and from the positioning of the cycles. however, i still think a Santa and New Year rally is almost unavoidable...that may be the time for the blow-off, which i feel is also in the cards eventually.
btw, i have heard of an LT cycle analyst who's decidedly bearish until 2003...i dont share this view right now, but a bear market lasting until then would also be a surprise for most people, so i won't rule it out entirely.
personally i'm more in Arik's camp...more downside from here after the current rally has run it's course, then another strong run-up on dissipating Y2K fears followed by a surprise downturn, perhaps even the BK. this is looking into next year already....i'd be prepared to change that opinion if i see the cycles inverting, but that is not the case right now.

regards,
hb
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