Let me bring my estimate of CC selling up to date.
I believe CC had sold all 1.33 million shares against the series A some time ago. I believe the 690k shares from the first series B conversion were sold prior to the end of September.
Today, I estimate CC sold another 65k shares through JPMS and INCA, and this brings my estimated total sold against the remaining Series B to 1015k, and they only would get about 1025k based on today's conversion price. They look almost finished to me. My estimates are based on observing Level II action over the last two months.
Of course some would rather estimate based on 30k or 15% of the volume per day over the last two months. If we do that since August 23rd, then the estimate is a total of 1.500 million sold against the series B total of 1.715 million... Subtracting the 690k converted from both numbers, leaves us with an estimate of about 810k out of the remaining 1025k, have been sold already.
Interesting that neither JPMS or INCA were on the ask at the close... INCA was for a while, but was knocked off the ask in the last ten minutes, about three minutes before the close. JPMS had given up selling, after selling a lot earlier in the day, and retreated to an ask above 5. Since today would have been a good day to keep the closing bid price below 4.50 and further reduce the conversion price, their absence is conspicuous. Have they run out of shares?
We saw significant buying through market makers who sold heavily in August.. notably SHWD, but also the INCA short and NITE short. I think the naked shorts are trying to cover before CC stops selling. But I think its too late; CC should be finished. Perhaps we get a few more shares sold by CC tomorrow or Monday, but they are finished.
It is possible that people on the sidelines may be able to buy some shares tomorrow, but the stock price will recover once it becomes apparent CC has finished. My guess is tomorrow we will see a steady upward trend. In any case, the fire sale on Valence shares is almost over, so if anyone wants to take advantage of the fire sale prices, you better move quick... the naked shorts will be wanting to pick up shares below 5 while they still can.
Paul |
