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Pastimes : About Everything and/or nothing
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To: James1000 who wrote ()10/29/1999 3:37:00 AM
From: James1000  Read Replies (4) of 247
 
I am starting to be uncomfortable with the stock market and maybe the economy in general. A half trillion dollars is the money currently invested in Microsoft stock. I can only wonder how much better that money would have been spent making a few hundred high quality programs.

I'm guessing Bill Gates has about a hundred billion of stock. If I were him I'd sell it all so I could start about 20 very large technology companies. On the other hand, his money is a few bucks compared to the national debt.

Unfortunately people are spending all of their money and then some. In fact, according to Business Week,(Nov 1, 99 p.40) Jane D'Arista, director of programs at Virginia based "think tank" Financial Markets Center reports that "This is historically unprecedented. We're in territory where no one knows what will happen." personal debt is at almost 1 years income for the average person compared to the 1980s high of 80%.

Although it should be common sense to be able to keep a decent budget, it should be stressed more in high school. Maybe instead of requiring four years of gym at the high school I went to they could require at least two years of money management. They only required 2 years of science and math.

I suppose the government could force people to post budget plans with their tax forms but it would make a lot more sense if they required more life management and less gym.

As long as nothing goes wrong our economy can keep right on track but I'd say there is not really much of a chance that nothing will go wrong for a long time. I predict a recession in the next two years because borrowing just keeps going up and has over a decade of momentum. I think the market right now is just down because there is a recovering Asian market to invest in.

Gladly, for now all my investments are in my own business and I'm not in any debt.

This has nothing to do with the rest of my post, but my short-term predictions of the market are that it will go over 11,000 in November before it goes back down to around 9,000 for the Y2K scares. Mondays are traditionally a bad day for the Dow but I'm guessing the New Year cash flow will be a good size waterfall of money. I plan for a Y2K short sell of Priceline and a New Years Eve buy of Ebay. Of course I don't want to think about what would happen if people start withdrawing a months worth of cash. I'd be glad to hear other peoples plans.

James
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