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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (72673)	10/29/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) of 86076

Heinz, March 2000... I have been targeting it for some time. Message 10992505 I base this claim on four bits of reasoning: 1) a study of taxable account money flows into index funds and index-moving stocks in Sept-Oct 1998. I predict that there will be selling pressure beginning in early March 2000 to capture LT capital gains (the LT holding period was changed to 18 months in April 1998) 2) a study of rally "extents". For this study, I used CHAID and Cox regression to find the likely extent of the intermediate downtrend and the following intermediate uptrend. This model will not let me predict primary trend changes, but it did pinpoint the SPX July top and October bottom within a few days. This tool used to be something I only used occasionally, but I'm paying more attention to it now. 3) Seasonal pressures now favor an move upward. 4) The construction industry is beginning to cool off, but the slowdown could easily be attributed to seasonality. If it does not pick up in late February, this will be a recessionary warning signal. Remember, the construction industry slowed in advance of the 1929 crash and the 1974 bear market. No evidence of a worrisome slowdown yet. AA

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