yeah, I'm playing this ultra safe. I think stocks have the most risk in a Y2K sell off. I have a real small position in 1 small cap which showed selling exhaustion by candlestick analysis, on the monthly time frame (and it just about break even today), and a couple of small positions in some gold juniors, which are cumalitively break even, and 1 position in a software company which I wrote some calls (about 20% return if the stock does nothing for seven months), my analysis shows the stock put in a big inverse head and shoulders pattern, and is now in a gentle up trend.
Well, that's it. No big bets. If the gold flys, I'll do great. If Stocks fly, I'll do mediocre. Lost opp. I saw the confirmed break of the down trendline yesterday. I advised some people of the break, who I might have influenced out of the market when the dow broke down below 10,400, and I let them know I was not participating in this potential rally off the break of the down trend line. I do think the Fed will raise rates. The market may now hail it as good medicine, but I do believe the FEd is behind the curve and trying to mediate the potential carnage. All just my opinions. |
