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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 35.53

-1.1%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (91323)	10/29/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) of 186894

Re: come back down to reality ... AMD volume Tenchusatsu, Remember that AMD's if-dreams-come-true goal is a 30% market share. Intel's goal is close to 90%. (Both would love 100% - I'm talking about business plans). For AMD to reach its goal by next year, it will need to sell 35 to 40 million CPUs. So the goal may have to wait until 2001. Once Dresden is in full production, AMD has the potential to produce quite a few more than that, even if some flash is made in Dresden and embedded CPUs are made at Austin. Intel is presently priced for a minimum 85% market share (by my rough, subjective estimate - let me know if you feel differently). There were some posts recently that implied that AMD was too small and lacked the capacity to ever achieve its 30% goal or present any challenge to Intel. I just wanted to show that AMD has the capacity to supply a huge portion of the market - and I think I did. >>>> 1) AMD's yields are typically 30%. Are you sure? Will that never change? >>>>2) Show me how AMD can fit 300 dies on a wafer That's how many Athlons Sanders said they were putting on wafers at Dresden in the CC. >>>>3) Ramping up volume sure doesn't happen overnight, and Intel already has a headstart with its four 0.18u fabs. No argument here, and you know a lot more about the details involved than I do. But we are now looking at Intel being twice the size of AMD (4 FABs to 2) in terms of production of CPUs. Meanwhile AMD is ahead 1 to nothing in .13 capable copper FABs. That 30% market share is looking pretty attainable. And don't forget that Intel presently costs 100 times as much as AMD in terms of stock price (taking into account the number of shares outstanding). My hope and expectation is not that Intel will go down, instead I hope that AMD will go up to better reflect its value relative to Intel (heck, I'd settle for mere 10 fold increase - bringing this company half the size of Intel up to a tenth the price - now you can talk about back-to-reality once again :-). <VBG> Regards, Dan

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