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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Charles R who wrote (77740)10/29/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Petz  Read Replies (1) of 1571462
 
Confirmation of shortage of K6-3-400's. Recently the Register ran an article which said that AMD was sold out of the K6-3-400, that they had already sold the quarter's projection of 1.3M units and was "out of stock."

The thread's reaction to this was to take it with a grain of salt and wait to see if prices go up. Well guess what?

Date Price at thechipmerchant.com
.............K6-3-400 K6-3-500
9/14.......117........163
9/21.......117........162
9/27.......111........162
10/8........91........156
10/19......88........160
10/25......90........159
10/29......94........158

It appears that prices are in fact rising. As inventories at distributors get drawn down, they start raising prices, causing the effect you see here.

If AMD has already sold 1.3M of these, it augers well for the ASP of the K6 series.
1.3M K6-3-400 in first 8 weeks of quarter --> 2M in quarter.
There were certainly less than 1M of these in Q3!
Discounting the price above by 25% means that AMD is getting $66 to $70 for these, well above the ASP of the K6 series in Q3. So, even though K6-2 ASP has probably dropped to $43 for the basic mix of 400's, 450's, the increasing proportion of K6-3's should keep the ASP from falling. If there's greater than 2M K6-3's being sold (counting the 450 and future 500), there's got to be more than 4M K6-2's out there, so I expect K6 revenue will not drop.

Petz
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