Jeff---------------------------
<<Wednesday, Oct 27 1999 9:12AM ET
Reply # of 29525
Once 2500 broke we had a good move down which was tradeable yeaterday, I thought `1282 to hold and that was the point where we had our stop after close on close..
<<Tuesday, Oct 26 1999 12:34PM ET
Reply # of 29482
Resistance and lot of pessimism but market jitters are based on something else these movements in bonds don't overlook them , for me 1330 is the major resitance and 792 A BIG SUPPORT ON bkx, likewise SOX 502 DOT 698 and PSE 615 now are imnportant levels like NDX 2500 if we have two closes above that.... so on one hand we have resistance every where on the other we have potential to break it is also on the anvil.. if DOW flies from here as I suspect on back of new additions as dead wood goes out that may become quite bullish. However, I will like ECI to be in line and GDP number to be subdued that will set us up for good move. In absence we think that 1241 is solid and we can trade it anytime if 2445 is taken out on NDX.. we can see some steep selling to 1282 and than 1241 if we do not hold but the key would be 2445 NDX and 502 sox and PSE 615... or DOT 698>>
My yesterday support levels are good but 1295 will be the area to watch if we bounce from here if we take it out 1300.7 will provide solid resitance but it is possible that in wake of todays continously good numbers rather neutral numbers on economics we may see some short covering... the real action will be tomorrow but orders (durable) are going down we may see meeting expectations not exceeding them..>>
I look back and enjoy the macro reading that helped Idea to be on the ball as rally started, this was as pits tell me the most damaging rally for the shorts, they had no chance to cover, they were caught pents down 1331 and 1350 like a rocket stopping finally at 1372 making a high at 1380 area where the first resistance hit it hard.. from 712 to 910 on BKX is a phenomenol move add on to it the SOX 555 and DOT and NDX new high and you can see that those who wanted that disaster based on some TA's got it hard on the chin, my advice always read macro and let TA be subservient to macro, the bond traders fooled everyone with that 6.36 break on bonds, that selling of 4000 contracts was now pre-positioning of huge new long positions at 6.40 probably.. those who follow 'Idea' could see the shape of things coming if they knew that bonds break like these are deadly traps, the trade on bond was the best hedge possible at that point go long bond and even if one is short the damage would be minimal as gains in boonds would have paid for the shorts premiums, for bonds major traditional breaks wait for two closes on a major break, if they could the puts at 1280 would not have been bought,, now they are worthless and 1400 looks at stone throw only.. where new strategies could be evolved.. |
