Alohal,
I don't recall ever making a market call. I'm a value guy. Value guys don't make market calls.
The problem with the "new pair of dimes" is that much of its basis has already been shot down by events. Those that haven't yet require a suspension of free market relationships that are extremely logical and have existed for over 100 years.
More importantly, the interpretations of data used to support the "new era" are usually so extremely biased that even a moderately experienced investor can see right through them. Of course that eliminates many of today's investors.
Many others, like corporations, make be acting in an illogical fashion when they buy in exercised options (with debt and such) at extreme valuations because of the pressures to support the stock price, and not because it makes economic sense or is in the shareholder's best interests.
Simply stated, there's a lot of beginners that are in the market because stocks are going up. Much of what's happening is not economically sustainable. Much of the "new era" is hype (if not lies), and many sophisticated investors are fully invested despite the fact they believe we are in a massive bubble (because it's their job).
If we have a "new era", it is a "new era" of participation by the clueless, unprecedented marketing and hype, potentially reckless behavior by banks, brokers, and the Fed, and a delinking of corporate behavior to maximizing shareholder value and a linking of corporate behavior to maximizing stock prices.
OK I'm done venting now. (g)
Wayne |
