Wayne, sorry if I confused you. I was responding to your post, but since I was in the neighborhood, I left a note for MB, who did make the call of a 4500 Dow by Dec 1999. He made it last October, when he (and many others on the thread) were were giggling and predicting the end of the world. Many bulls (myself included) on the other hand were jumping up and down and buying with both fists during that same time. Who do you think came away with the better bargain?
I stand ready to be educated about which "events" have already shot down much of the basis for the "new pair of dimes" (BTW ridicule is one of the main weapons in the arsenals of those who either fear or do not understand change).
I believe that the disdain for contemporary investors and their investment styles which you express in your post is also a product of resistance to change. I don't quite follow your reference to the idea that belief in a changing economic environment (sweeping, accelerated change at that) requires a "suspension of free market relationships that are extremely logical and have existed for over a 100 years". Do you really believe that 100 years is a long time? Long enough to validate the dominant paradigm as immutable truth? What do you suppose people thought of these logical free market relationships when they appeared on the scene more than a 100 years ago?
Additionally, anyone with even a rudimentary grasp of statistical relationships and data interpretation realizes that all such interpretations are biased. You look at the data and see a bubble. Others look at it and see undervaluation. Why? You seem to believe that those who see it differently than you are "clueless" or "reckless" or "illogical". In an earlier era you might have said the same about the advent of fire or iron tools or the printing press or the steam engine or the automobile or the computer.
My perspective is slightly different, (obviously!). I believe that there are events in history which do mark paradigm shifts. These shifts are met with awesome resistance and are almost always marked by great upheaval and turbulence, physical, social and economic. They are also times of great expansion and tremendous advancement. We as humans learn eventually to deal with these shifts and generally profit from them.
Yes, there may be turbulent times ahead for those who invest in ways that they believe compatible with such paradigm shifts and it is a risk most are willing to take in return for the expanded opportunities these shifts bring. Such a shift has been happening right under our noses for at least the past two decades and a great many people have profited from their ability to recognize those opportunities before others.
Such shifts never move upward in a perfectly straight line and there will be challenges ahead, but I and many others believe that the direction is upward and are willing to take the informed risks in order to reap the rewards (free market capitalism at work!). It seems to me that you do not trust that others are taking INFORMED risks. That they are somehow being duped or suckered into taking risks for which they are not prepared. Do you presume to protect them from themselves? From their Greed? From their belief that they can get rich without effort?
I can only speak for myself. I do not need you to protect me. For me the proof of this paradigm shift is found in my investment experience of the past decade and I continue to scan the horizon for change, so that I may embrace it and perhaps benefit from instead of fear it.
Good luck with you investments.
Cheers
Alohal |
