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George--Ideally, I would like to see crude break 20 heading for 19 and XOI, XNG and OSX all at slight new lows for this Correction BUT with positive divergences on macd, rsi etc. That would shock the bulls, who would all ask "how can this be?" and thereby hopefully create an environment of despair once again. At the moment, there is still far too much complacency, at least judging from the comments on this board as most investors and analysts do not think crude will break 20 and everyone is a closet bull just frothing at the mouth at all the great cash flow bargains there are out there.... Actually under Elliott, there is a basic postulate that after 5 waves up (which we have likely done from 11ish to 25ish), the ensuing retrace goes back "into the area of" the "4th wave of one lesser degree" (don't ask!).That would target roughly 17ish, about a 50% retrace...but I digress.... That could 'possibly' come about on a fast panic spike if OPEC got up and announced to the world that they were increasing production along the lines that Simmons's& Co. anticipates (2-3mn bpd)....('there they go again' type of reasoning)... All things considered, I am still not prepared to substantially raise my oily weighting, except in names that are already at or near their lows and which are already giving off positive indicator divergences. The ESV's of the world are not my cup of tea. I'm probably a little early on MDR, but that one makes much more sense than chasing shallow jackups and overextended charts on land guys at the moment imo....Don't misunderstand where I am coming from here. I too am a closet bull and am looking to increase my exposure. But, as I see it, the ideal opportunity is not there yet. It would appear that Simmons&Co tends towards this same view, based on their call for expanded OPEC production. Actually, the worst thing for investors in here is if OPEC continues to hang tough, as in that case the closer we get to March the more skittish investors will become (like Greenspan watch--'go ahead and raise the rate and get it over with'--now energy investors are on OPEC watch and will become even more suspect the closer we get to March since 'everyone' thinks like Slider in that they don't dare as there would be a collapse in pricing-so they won't)---my 2c fwiw. |
