SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Biotech / Medical : AutoImmune-AIMM

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Rocketman who wrote (72)4/11/1997 6:57:00 PM
From: Thomas Stewart   of 298
 
Up another 17% today! You flamed the crap out of Organ! I started out howling and finished reading your message cringing--sympathy for my nemisis I guess.

No need to retain a lawyer yet, Mark. I suspect that the criminal liability of casual tippees is less of a slam dunk than indicated in that article. You will not be hauled off to the pokey by US Marshals anytime soon!

Back to business. I have bought a straddle, really a spread on AIMM. My reasoning goes like this:

As most readers know, in the next few weeks, AIMM will announce the results of a phase III clinical trial for an oral MS treatment. What some readers may have forgotten is that within weeks of their announcement on MS trials there will be an announcement on a phase II RA trial. As the treatments are similar--antigen feeding in both cases--it is not unreasonable to expect that the results will be in tandem, that is, both good, or both bad.

Scenario 1: the trials are a bust. This company will spin into liquidation within weeks. No money. No products. No investors. The stock will be practically worthless.

Scenario 2: the trials are a success. FDA approval is a foregone conclusion. A proven oral treatment for MS AND a likely treatment for RA, PLUS an effective strategy for diabetes other autoimmune diseases and even transplant surgery will send this company thru the rough.

My conclusion is that this should be approached with a thoughtful spread of maybe July puts and July calls. Such an investment should rise in either scenario. Hard for me to see how this approach can fail.

Any flaws in my reasoning?

And Dr. de Castro, are you a nuerologist? If so, please state your opinion about combination therapy including antigen feeding. Are there any other nuerologists or knowledgeble medical practitioners lurking who have an opinion on combination therapy? We would be delighted to hear your thoughts. Thank you.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext