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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 687.57

+0.7%

Dec 10 4:00 PM EST

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (31883)	10/30/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Well this is going to be one interesting end of year that is for sure. I have run through at least the charts I keep posted on my site and they are for the most part supporting the bull case. I have bullish forks that support this rally and they fit pretty well. The TYX made a waterfall drop and a weekly bearish engulfing hinting that rates should continue to drop and the Bond should continue to rise following as I posted here off and on class two signals for a week. I did have a class 3 over bought on the Dollar so it's drop may have just been technical and I have to admit, I can't get any good lines on it so I don't know the extent it will drop before recovering. I see a few danger sign hints like IBM, DELL and CPQ trying to party with the rest in the rally despite warnings, lower earnings etc yet at the same time companies that did well on earnings and gave bright outlooks like MMM dropped ina nasty way Thursday and Friday. A mix of euphoria and pessimism or else dumping of "granny stocks" to chase the high flyers maybe? I am basically inthe bull camp but am worried about a few things as I put in my comments section on my site. On that note, sorry that I was late updating but I had a busy morning and just finally finished my update. My site of course is at home.att.net For those that have good historical charts, I would take a look at 1994 and the rally that happened then. That was about the best comparison I could find to this one and keeps me guarded in my optimism. Basically I couldn't find where a correction ever recovered like we are now. '94 had the closest thing to this with large white candles and gaps like now starting 10 October. It shot up for 3 days then slowed down and continued to climb slowly for 5 days. It then retraced 50% for weeks, had a one week rally then made new lows in December ending on December 9th. It then had a more normal rally back to the 200 Expodential DMA and sat on it for 3 weeks until 95 when it finally started this last accelerated bull leg to now. Others I looked at that kind of looked like now were Dec 91, April 92, May 94 and they all retested their lows later on. Basically my charts are bullish but history is against a genuine recovery here. Which will win, the charts or history? Good Luck, Lee

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