A more pessimistic analysis
1) Re CMGI vs. Softbank: I sold all of my CMGI in May. Softbank is the only VC I own.
But I wonder if the going may not get progressively more difficult for VC firms like Softbank and CMGI. In the past, the mainline economy ignored the web, allowing "substitute" startups to fill the gaps. I think the barrier to entry of a mainstream economic firm getting on the web is much lower than the B to E of a new startup to break into a specific market and compete against established businesses.
For example, I bank at Fidelity. During the past year, they have done a nice job of getting on the web. They give me everything that E-Trade does, plus the cachet of stability and an established firm. At first their website was terrible, but incrementally, it now gives me everything I want.
I like Softbank because of the NASDAQ play, and the play in Japan, Europe, China, and India, but these countries are still not the US, and web growth may not recapitulate the US experience, particularly as mainline firms in those countries decide to webbify their operations.
So B2B, yes. VCs that are trying to replicate the real economy in cyberspace -- maybe... hopefully, yes, for big profits, but maybe not!
Jonas |
