Hello WW, I think the statement they make ("...because a failure of digital TV in the US means the failure of High Definition TV sets. ") is a bit overblown, even if 8VSB turns out to be a flop. In other words, they are associating "digital TV" with terrestrial broadcasts only. That's only a small part of it.
Since terrestrial delivery isn't the primary reception method for the masses in the US (especially for those that need huge choices of movies), I'm not sure it's such a huge impact. Terrestrial delivery as the primary means of TV reception (via rabbit ears or outside antenna) has been in steep decline since the mid 80's. Far more broadcast network content is received via cable or satellite that via the rabbit ears.
I could be wrong, but I don't think receiving over-air broadcasts will be the prime driver for people to buy an HDTV-capable set (especially at initial prices of over 2000 bucks). It sure wont be for me. I'd bet that most people's first exposure to high definition content will be via their computer since the cost to enter the “high definition” era is much cheaper this way ( a few hundred bucks for a plug-in card) because they don't have to shell out a couple-few thousand bucks for a large screen digital monitor.
People can get their “high definition” fix in many ways: via cable, wireless cable, DBS, or even from renting/buying DVD's (so it isn't limited to “television” in the traditional sense). Maybe we need to stop referring to it as HD “TV” since it's much broader than that. It's high definition “content.”
Cable and/or DBS are available to most everyone (as are DVD's), and aren't directly impacted by the potential failure of 8VSB, if it should materialize. If the television manufacturers adopt more of a "HDTV monitor" approach (rather than HDTV "receiver"), with plug-in modules or external boxes handling the RF front-end and demod/FEC, the problem is solved. This would be a way to reduce the cost of the monitor anyway, and the consumer only buys the external receiver(s) they need.
The TV manufacturers will fight this, of course, since this portion that gets stripped out and boxed up on its own eats into their profits. It is inevitable that the front-end functions that used to be integrated into the set (because they used to use common signal formats) are stripped out to a stand-alone box because there are too many incompatible (at the receiver front end) sources for high definition content.
Years down the road, when the cost of the multiple receivers is insignificant, maybe then it gets integrated with the monitor regardless of whether the consumer needs it or not.
dh |
