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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 685.33+1.1%Jan 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Smooth Drive who wrote (31492)10/30/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
NEW HIGH NEW LOW BULLISH % CHART

This chart is constructed by taking a 10 day moving average of the New Highs divided by New Highs plus New Lows (over 52 weeks). Its range is therefore 0 to 100%. It takes 3 boxes (6%) to reverse up or down.

The chart bottomed on the 12% box on 9/29/99, reversed up on 10/08/99, reversed back down on 10/19/99 and has now reversed back up as of Friday's close. 

80
78                 X
76         X       X O
74         X O     5 O 
72         X O     X O 
70     X   X O     X O X 
68     X O X O     X O X O 
66     X O X O     X O X O
64     X C 1 O     X O X O 
62     X O X O     X O X O
60     X O X O     X O X O 
58     X O X O     X O X O
56     X O X O     X O X O
54     B O X O     X O 7 O
52     X O X O     X O X O
50     X O X O     X O X O
48     X O X O     X O 6 O
46     X O   O X   X O X O
44     X     2 X O X O X O
42     X     O X O X O   O
40     X     O X O X     O X
38     X     O X O X     O X O
36     X     O X O X     O X O
34     X     O X O X     8 X 9
32     X     O X O 4     O X O
30     X     O X O X     O X O
28     X     O X O X     O X O
26     X     O 3 O       O X O
24 X   X     O X         O X O
22 X O X     O X         O X O
20 X O A     O           O X O X 
18 X O X                 O   O A O
16 X O X                     O X O X
14 X O                       O X O X
12 X                         O   O X
10 X                             O X
8  X                             O
6  9

A few of the more important P&F short term indicators have turned up (including the above). That's a short term bullish sign and, of course short term can lead to long term. I don't think this chart is head faking right now. The New York SE Bullish % is at 33.4% and will reverse up at 38%.

Last time new highs exceeded new lows was 9/10/99 and then 8/23/99 and 7/21/99.

Current data:

	        NYSE	NYSE		10 Day 
	        New	New		Moving
DATE	        Highs	Lows	Index	Average
10/29/99	120	90	0.571	0.167
10/28/99	77	147	0.344	0.112
10/27/99	30	246	0.109	0.084
10/26/99	36	316	0.102	0.077
10/25/99	44	285	0.134	0.081
10/22/99	56	239	0.190	0.094
10/21/99	25	338	0.069	0.099
10/20/99	22	320	0.064	0.118
10/19/99	19	275	0.065	0.136
10/18/99	8	418	0.019	0.155
10/15/99	11	500	0.022	0.178
10/14/99	24	357	0.063	0.191

Take care,

Eric
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