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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Paul Engel who wrote (77984)10/31/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: Cirruslvr  Read Replies (3) of 1576160
 
Paul - RE: "Roughly speaking, each 300 MM wafer will have 2.25X the number of equivalent die on a 200 MM (8 inch) wafer. Raw wafer costs will probably double but that represents only about 5 to 10% of the overall processing costs/wafer."

I bet Intel management is drooling at the cost savings. ;)

"Of course, the cost of entry will be enormous - my guess is $2.5 to 3 Billion for a 300 MM wafer fab, Copper process, 0.13 micron - from the ground up."

But do you think a current Fab can be outfitted to handle the larger wafers?

"AMD is sitting on $1.5 BILLION of debt righ now and losing money every quarter. Dresden will be an enormous OVERHEAD expense - eating up even more costs - direct and indirect and overhead. AMD cannot afford another wafer fab especially in view of the $2.5 to $3.0 Billion cost.

At best, AMD will have to depend on an outside foundry - or take on a partner - to survive at that stage of the game."

Hmmm. Maybe the future Dresden partner may have a larger impact than previously thought.

"Just having an AthLON CPU is nowhere near enough to insure their future success."

Which may be why they are going for the long ball with X86-64.

"All those years of losses cannot be erased in one or two quarters - especially in view of the fact that AMD's main competitor has been putting $1.2 to $2.0 BILLION dollars in its piggy bank EVERY QUARTER for the past 12 or 14 quarters - and that's a lot of JACK !"

Yes, these losses and AMD's diminishing cash are going to be a TOUGH thing to overcome.

"I believe Jerry said Dresden wouldn't impact AMD's bottom line until H2/2000 - making that Q3/2000 at the earliest. And that is 9 to 10 months away !"

I didn't hear Q3's CC, so I don't know if he said that.
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