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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (72799)	10/31/1999 9:34:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 86076

Heinz, >>weren't you looking for SPX 900, only a few days ago? did the recent move change your view, or are you going to adjust the time frame? My plan was for the Intermediate 4 correction (correcting for the bull market since 12/94) to be a zig zag down to SPX 900 area in December. A of 4 was supposed to be the leg down from the high in July to 10/18, and the current rally C of B of 4. C of 4 was supposed to be a shorter, sharper move down, compared to A of 4. The recent rally posed some questions, esp. the big volume last Thursday and Friday. Maybe Intermediate 4 ended on 10/18 ? Maybe we have already started the last blow off before the MC ? Different charts give different clues. On the Dow chart, the down leg from July to October looks like a clear impulse, and still supports my original scenario that calls for another leg down. The S&P OTOH looks too strong. Indeed from 10/18 to 10/22 it looks like A of a corrective ABC, and from 10/22 to 10/26 was the B, but now the C suddenly took a life of its own. The key to solving this problem should be the next pullback - I expect Monday to open up and trade higher then Friday's high, and then start reversing almost immediately. If the pullback from Monday's high is not small (small = 15-20 S&P points) it will try to challenge 1310 level. If the S&P trades under 1310 then it will be a big confirmation that the rally from 10/18 was indeed a corrective B. OTOH if the pullback is small or medium (1340 area) and the market can work its way to a new local high (higher then Monday) then the rally from 10/18 will be an impulse and will suggest another leg up after a corrective move. Another support can come from European markets - The CAC is nearing its upper band of the LT rising wedge (from 10/98) at 4957 on Monday. A reversal fromt that area of a break up from the wedge wuold give indication. I wrote this post in bits and pieces. I hope it makes sense. Got to go. ATG

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