RE: QCOM & Third Generation Wireless Telecom Standards report expected in the coming week.
Thank you to James M. Lee (post 46661) and DHaaland (post 46663) (both dated today, Sunday, October 31, 1999) for your comments/questions in reference to Mr. Lee's following link to the www.TelecomTechStocks.com report about third generation wireless telecom standards. (The original link posted by Mr. Lee had a slight typographical error, by the way, and may have caused some here to be unable to locate it). This is the correct link:
telecomtechstocks.com
As that report suggests, in spite of the talk about A "3G standard," I believe that no single standard will emerge. Current radio transmission technologies defer enough in the details for each system to be attractive to different telephone companies, each with their own market realities, customers, applications, and previously installed equipment, besides the political realities.
In my experience I find general agreement that THREE basic technologies will emerge from the international third generation wireless standards process next week:
1. TDMA-Only Standard This standard will be entirely TDMA, with no CDMA elements at all. This proposal is usually referred to as UWC-136. This standard is important because it provides an evolutionary path for both the old analog Advanced Mobile Phone System (AMPS) and the second generation digital technologies designed specifically to be compatible with, and correct the deficiencies of, AMPS. Except for GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications) cell phones, there are more AMPS cell phones in the world today than any other type. This new "economy class" standard would allow relatively speedy and low-cost development for both analog and second generation digital. This version might be described as 2.5G because it is somewhere between the current second generation and the new third generation (3G) standards
2. cdma2000 The so-called "Qualcomm Standard", is intended to provide some of the benefits of third generation wireless while still protecting the heavy investment some telecom providers have made in Qualcomm's narrowband CDMA ("IS-95") equipment and systems, most of which are in North America and Korea. This technology does as much as possible to bring current second generation (narrowband) CDMA equipment to accept some third generation broadband features. Qualcomm has exerted tremendous political pressure (through allies in the U.S. Congress) to ensure that this is one of the final three approved international standards. They will surely be successful in that. Some investors, however, falsely believe that because third and fourth generation wireless standards will be based on CDMA, therefore Qualcomm will be the chief beneficiary. But Qualcomm's technology is narrowband CDMA while most of the world will adapt third and fourth generation technology which is wideband CDMA, a much different animal
3. UTRA Wideband CDMA with TDD The most promising approach to the new, third and fourth generation wireless is a combination of wideband CDMA air interface, time division duplexing (TDD) and GSM. The latter allows roaming and is by far the preferred network in over 110 countries, especially in Europe. A wide variety of worldwide telecom technology and equipment firms, including almost all the big names except Qualcomm, are merging their various W-CDMA proposals. The intention is to take advantage of W-CDMA technology without ignoring the many GSM (second generation) systems in the world. These telecom leaders have come up with a technology based on the well-developed European (ETSI) Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS). This consensus 3G system is called UTRA (for UMTS terrestrial radio access). Because it is much more capable than the (Qualcomm) cdma2000 system and is compatible with the existing GSM systems, there is no question that this third standard proposal will eventually be, by far, the most popular. There will be little competition from Qualcomm's cdma2000 standard, except in the United States and Korea, and perhaps in the parts of China where Qualcomm has established a presence.
Most Qualcomm investors have probably never even heard of the Pennsylvania based InterDigital Communications Corp. (AMEX:IDC), altho the two corprations have cross-licensed some intellectual property and Qualcomm has paid InterDigital a few million dollars for those rights.
InterDigital probably has no intellectual property rights in the cdma2000 proposed standard likely to be finally approved next week. InterDigital has never devoted any resources to the narrowband CDMA technology upon which the "Qualcomm standard" is based. However, as several of us on the www.TelecomTechStocks.com web site have argued in several sections of that site, InterDigital is a major player in both the TDMA-Only and Wideband CDMA standard.
Because InterDigital holds foundational patents in TDMA technology, it has an important stake in the TDMA-Only standard described above, and has been working diligently with industry peers to ensure that its intellectual property rights are included in this new standard.
It is generally acknowledged that InterDigital intellectual property rights also will be prominently included in the W-CDMA standard. InterDigital has been drawing on its extensive experience in designing TDMA/GSM and its state-of-the-art broadband CDMA (B-CDMA(tm)) technology to address a previously unsolved problem. That is how to deal with the incompatibility between second generation TDMA and GSM and third generation wideband CDMA in the design of a relatively simple and inexpensive wireless device. Knowledgeable sources say that InterDigital either has already completed -- or is very close to completing -- work on a TDD (Time Division Duplex channel access) protocol. This "building block" is a highly significant breakthrough in telecom technology, and could become the "crown jewel" among InterDigital's 800 worldwide patents.
InterDigital's revolutionary technology very possibly will allow one wireless telephone to replace both wireline and mobile wireless phones. InterDigital's proprietary technology, as I understand its evolution, will allow the wireless device automatically to adjust to all digital calls, whether TDMA, GSM or wideband CDMA, in effect speaking several "languages."
It is my understanding that InterDigital is achieving this breakthrough through Time Division Duplexing (TDD) deploying a highly sophisticated digital ISDN device that operates at several data rates, including 128, 144, 386 and 400 Kbps (and higher). The same frequency band is used for both transmit and receive it signals.
It is important to the integrity of our non-commercial and "cookie-free" www.TelecomTechStocks.com web site that all the players in the telecom technology and equipment industry be treated fairly on this site.
A particular section on our site is devoted to Qualcomm, with its own "buttom" among the "industry leaders" near the top of the home page. Clicking that Qualcomm button leads one as follows:
telecomtechstocks.com
If anyone here has any suggestions to improve our site in reference to its treatment of Qualcomm or any other telecom tech firm, please let me know. I take your comments very seriously.
Thank you!
Bill Dalglish,
Editor
www.TelecomTechStocks.com
bdalglish@aol.com
PS: Since I own shares in QCOM, IDC, Ericsson, Cisco and some other telecom tech stocks, please be sure to read the important disclaimer at the www.TelecomTechStocks.com site:
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