Fellow, I didn't quite follow your numbers, and I suspect that you're off a little because your share price projection is a little too high (can anyone on the thread actually believe I said that <VBG>). Didier's 6-7,000 tools is over the 248nm time frame. (I didn't have easy access to SIA's roadmap, can someone help?)
You may as well use Akins' projections. His guess for laser sales in 2000 is $500m, 2001 is $750m, and 2002 is $900m. (These numbers came from his presentation at the last annual meeting.) I don't know if this includes service and spares, but to be conservative let's assume it does.
If you figure an after tax rate in 2000, 2001, and 2002 of 15%, 16%, and 17% respectively, and you use shares outstanding of 34m, 35m, and 36m, respectively, you get 2000, 2001, and 2002 EPS of $2.21, $3.43, and $4.25 respectively.
Given the growth rate and the fact that companies sell at a multiple of the following year's earnings, you get a share price of $200 sometime in 2001.
Let's hope it happens.
Jay |
