CRITICAL info in a "dated article" NO STRINGS ATTACHED Despite the considerable risk and expense, VCs are bullish on wireless communications.
By Alex Gove The Red Herring magazine April 1997
Investing in wireless communications is not for the faint of heart. Although the majority of venture capitalists we spoke with argued that the high cost of installing fiber-optic wires will result in increased demand for wireless alternatives, the money required to start new wireless ventures exceeds that of almost every other area of venture capital investment. Aside from the technical challenges, which cross many disciplines, startups must carefully track the movements of a number of telco and wireless behemoths. And then there is the Federal Communications Commission, a government body whose regulatory actions can undermine entire companies with the stroke of a pen.
As challenging as the wireless industry is, however, a number of venture capital firms are willing to play this high-tech game of chicken. One reason is the size of the wireless local-loop market: the worldwide market will reach 60 million lines by the year 2000, according to the Washington, D.C., research firm MTA-EMCI. (For a look at the wireless local-loop market in developing countries, see "Closing the Gap.") In the United States, wireless technologies are offering interexchange carriers (IECs) like American Telephone & Telegraph, Microwave Communications Inc. (MCI), and Sprint an opportunity to compete head-on with the regional Bell operating companies (RBOCs) for control of the lucrative local loop. This is particularly true in the data transport arena, where advances in millimeter-wave radio hardware give startups a chance to sell into a very big market.
Still, the number of venture plays in the wireless world is growing exponentially. Judging from the activity in millimeter-wave radio as well as personal communications services (PCS), cellular, and even specialized mobile radio (SMR) technologies, the message from the VC community is clear: wired truly is tired.
These days, data transport over 38 GHz is all the rage. True, proponents of 28 GHz (Local Multipoint Distribution Service, or LMDS) are considering using that frequency instead of "wireless cable" for data transport in light of the planned FCC auctions of a whopping 1.3 GHz of spectrum later this year. (See "What's the Frequency, Kenneth?" on page 86 for more on the auctions.) But 38 GHz is already being used for data transport as well as for voice and video. Besides the "first-mover" advantage of 38 GHz, Andy Fillat of Advent International is impressed with its directivity. Although all millimeter-wave radio frequencies require a clear line of sight between stations, 38 GHz is so high on the frequency scale that two beams can be pointed in only slightly different directions with minimal interference. Since 38-GHz spectrum can be reused anywhere from 5,000 to 500,000 times, Mr. Fillat believes 38 GHz is a more flexible local-loop alternative than 28 GHz or 18 GHz.
Advent is betting on data transport over millimeter-wave radio in three ways. First, the firm was one of two venture investors in Advanced Radio Telecom (Nasdaq: ARTT), an early-stage public company that currently owns the lion's share of 38-GHz spectrum along with WinStar Communications and Biztel Communications. (Ameritech Ventures was also an investor.) In addition, Advent joined Bessemer Ventures; Weiss, Peck & Greer; Norwest Venture Capital; Burr, Egan, Deleage & Co.; JH Whitney & Co.; and Ameritech in investing in P-Com (Nasdaq: PCMS), which primarily focuses on the cellular voice-backhaul market but is increasingly developing equipment for 38-GHz data transport. Advent's most recent bet is on American Wireless, a Seattle startup founded last December to build "third generation" millimeter-wave radios and systems for broadband wireless local-loop carriers. The firm, which raised a $7 million first round from Advent, Crosspoint Venture Partners, Alta Partners, and ITV, plans on releasing product later this year.
Taking it to the Netro American Wireless is keeping a low profile, but Mr. Fillat acknowledges that the market for 38-GHz data transport equipment has already become competitive. One rival could be Netro, a three-year-old Santa Clara firm in the process of closing a third round of $15 million. (To date, the company has raised more than $30 million from AT&T; Brentwood Associates; Norwest Venture Capital; Cisco Systems; US Venture Partners; Citibank; Vebacom GmbH; Robertson, Stephens & Co.; and Deutsche Morgan Grenfell.) Netro is currently focused on the European market because the European Economic Community has mandated the deregulation of the local loop in Western Europe by January 1998. Since August of last year, Netro has been delivering equipment that allows Asynchronous Transfer Mode and frame relay service over 38 GHz. One customer is Vebacom, which hopes to compete with Deutsche Telekom without paying for leased lines; at the same time, Netro also hopes to sell Deutsche Telekom equipment that will allow it to expand its coverage.
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