Neo, the only thing that is keeping Yeltsin in power is the fact that he was elected for a four-year term in 1996. And the only thing that would keep a peaceful, orderly transition from taking place next year would be if he were to subvert the scheduled Presidential elections (as by declaring a State of Emergency). If he were to do that, I think he would be unlikely to risk doing his usual shtick -- Democracy (Me) is locked in Mortal Combat with the Forces of Reaction (Them), and if the West does not back Me, it will find Nuclear Bombs Falling On Its Head, and sundry other unpleasantnesses.
Meanwhile, there is no need that I can see for any coalition to “take power” or to “attempt to rectify things through the use of force.” Why bother, if it can get elected legitimately, and carry out its program with a popular mandate?
As far as this year's parliamentary elections go, more than 150 different parties, movements, and blocs are running candidates, but only a few of them will break the 5% barrier,. As of early October, these were the leaders in public opinion polls:
Communists: 30%
Primakov-Luzhkov bloc (Fatherland/All Russia): 25%
Yabloko (Democratic opposition): 19%
Liberal Democrats (Zhirinovsky nationalists): 7%
Our Home is Russia (former “party of power”; Chernomyrdin): 5%
Note the decline in popularity of Zhirinovsky's party (and of Zhirinovsky himself). The Primakov-Luzhkov bloc, and Our Home is Russia are populated largely by moderate bureaucratic types. Even if the Communists came out on top in the parliamentary elections, there would be no major nationalist party for them to ally with. (Practically everybody is a chauvinist -- a “Russia Firster” -- nowadays, which is not quite the same thing as being a Nationalist with a capital “N”.)
Now for the Presidential favorites, as of early October:
Primakov: 22%
Zyuganov (the Communist): 19%
Putin: 15%
Yavlinsky (Yabloko): 13%
Luzhkov: 10%
Zhirinovsky: 5%
In the last couple of weeks, Putin has caught up to Primakov. That should make Yeltsin happy (maybe), since Putin was the man he hand-picked as his successor (although Yeltsin may now be prepared to back a new dark horse, Sergei Shoigu). Interesting choice: a KGB career type, with no party affiliation.....Hmmmm....Frankly, I am not sure I wouldn't prefer to see Primakov in there, or even Zyuganov. (Little hope at all for Yavlinsky, alas.)
Well, on the other hand, Putin's ratings will fall if he does not successfully continue with Operation Bloodshed in Chechnya....(The country is out for blood; lots of it.)
As for the regional leaders, that is a completely different ball of wax. Let me say, for the moment, that only one region of Russia has ever seriously thought of independence, and that is Chechnya. Every regional boss tries to get as free a hand in his own bailiwick as possible, but at the same time recognizes the advantages of belonging to the Russian Federation. If the Far East should ever truly try to go solo, it would only be because the economy had deteriorated to the point there would no longer be any such advantages.
In any event, Yeltsin is completely played out; he is but a shadow of his former self. Personally, I am convinced his mind is going. And I can't see what positive effect he could possibly have on the course of anything.
Joan
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