Hi Bill Jackson; Funny thing about mother board makers and Intel. Some thoughts...
For a long time I've felt that the eventual target of the mainstream PC industry (i.e. "desktop" machines), is system on a chip, and that this will eventually force vertical integration. For the eventual winners, I would expect INTC, IBM, CPQ, HWP, APPL and Via to be survivors. Maybe AMD.
But now is way too soon to be forcing people to accept your mother boards. Especially when you can't design them worth a dam.
I foresee a system that comes complete, with no "user serviceable" parts. That is, DRAM installed, graphics installed, everything included. All of the connectors that do nothing but connect signals from one board to another will be gone. (That includes the PCI bus, the hard disk controller header, etc.) The only remaining connectors are to things that cannot possibly be integrated on to the main board. That might include the monitor or keyboard, unless they were integrated into the design, and network connector, speakers (unless integrated), printer, etc. The whole thing sells for so dirt cheap, and yet is so fast (due to the integration), that it is the only type of computer that anyone would possibly consider buying for their own use. About the price of a half decent microwave oven, or a small TV.
This is not as radical as it sounds, it is just an extension of trends that have been present for 20 years. For the mainstream computer market, the tendency has been to integrate subsystems on to the CPU chip (or the CPU card), at a higher rate than new subsystems are added to the system. Thus the number of suppliers decreases as time goes on.
One of the side effects of this integration is that box makers input less (relative) technology, and so have more trouble differentiating their product from that of other box makers. The effect is to give more power to the CPU maker. Over the long run, I think that this is especially good for the CPU houses. I think Via is going to destroy the low end of the market within the next 18 months.
The unfortunate consequence of all this competition, and the increase in the number of chips coming from each wafer, is that there is definitely goign to be some nasty price wars looking forward.
Companies like Dell, who have very little (relative) engineering built into their product will have more trouble putting systems on a chip than the big vertical integration houses will have putting chips on mother boards.
-- Carl |
