Captain: It doesn't matter how many times you repeat that CPQ has been a bad performer since late January 1999 (you hardly ever mention its stellar performance in several previous years) you cannot alter the fact that the market is about the future.
You are wrong to say the restucturing is taking a longtime. Study the staff reductions in 3Q, improvements in margins, reductions in costs, reduction to 4 or 5 channel partners from over 100, reduction of inventory in channel and progressive transition to direct, re-organisation of the company and its accounting, introduction of new machines and the enhanced harmonisation of Tandem, Digital and Classic COMPAQ products, the sale of Alta Vista. Also look at MC's suggestion that most of the rest of the lay-offs will be achieved in 4Q. Even a cautious prognosis would suggest that contributions to the bottom line from cost-savings are going to very substantial in 4Q and they are happening right now.
You are right that defintion of "rapid" is critical. I would say that a three-bagger from here in 15 months late January 2001) is "rapid" especially if, as I expect, it will be more than a double by July, 2000. This time last year, I was dismissed on this board when I suggested that it would achieve $50 by January since we were still in the $20's when I made that prediction. As right as I was then, I cannot make that prediction again. However, I think that $30 by January is attainable and, if all the conditions are right, and momentum takes hold, an intraday spike to the mid $30's is always possible. |
