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I'll focus on the ruling and market reaction. Speculation about legality, antitrust, competition, or ethics won't help me trade. It seems clear how judge Jackson feels. Questions: one, does he ignore appeals, or craft a moderate, appeal-proof ruling? Two, how does the market react? I estimate he is highly sensitive to being overruled (again) on appeal, and wants to issue as bulletproof a ruling as possible. His findings are hard to overturn, but legal interpretations will be fair game. Therefore, I expect his FOF to be extremely anti-Microsoft, but for the ruling, barring settlement, to be quite moderate. I expect the market to be surprised by both. These predictions are eminently testable, and I've put money behind them.
Cheers,
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