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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

+0.6%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: donald sew who wrote (32076)	11/1/1999 8:20:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503, has us ranked #2 in performance for the last 12 months in the October 11 issue. The McClellan Oscillator closed Friday at plus 167. Closing readings above plus 150 predict future strength in the market will appear. In other words this rally that began last week has further to go. But first the market should consolidate for a short while. The depth of this potential pull back will tell us what kind of a rally will occur next. If the December S&P's pull back 38.2% or less on the rally from the low on October 26 to the high on October 29, than the next up-leg should about equal the leg from the October 26 low to the high on October 29. That rally was about 100 S&P points. If the pull back is greater than 50% of that rally than expect a weaker rally. The prudent thing to do here is not attempt to pick a short term top but rather pick the next short term low as most surprises will be to the upside. In candlestick charting on the December S&P's a bearish "Midpoint Harami Line" was drawn. This pattern expects a short-term reversal, but we will be prudent. Today's volume dropped off to 836 millions shares. Friday's volume was 1.09 billion shares. When volume drops significantly on a pull back than one can expect a consolidation pattern to develop rather than a reversal in the market.

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