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To: bill meehan who wrote (73122)	11/2/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) of 86076

some good thoughts on how Floyd may bump up Friday's number..... the October's Employment Report -- not unlike September's -- should also feel the effects of hurricane Floyd. The market is largely expecting a post-hurricane bounce in payrolls, with the median at 300K and estimates ranging from 200K to 525K. The historical data points to such a rise, as the last time we saw this sort of movement was in January 1996, when the south and northeast were crippled by a blizzard. In January 1996, payrolls fell 48K and then bounded back with a 479K increase in February. A 525K increase would certainly look ugly at first glance, but an increase of that magnitude would place average job growth for the year at 225K, which is still 3K less than the average for the first ten months of 1998. A reading of 300K would place average job growth for the year at 205K. The bottom line is that even if payrolls print a number as ugly as 525K, it just isn't that bad for the market, as it can be written off to the storm. This should also be readily apparent to the FOMC.

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