Steve,
Its really hard to define the longer-term trend right now, but for the intermediate trend(30 days) is up. Im not convinced that we have started a new and concrete BULL LEG up that is across the board. That is not to say that some sectors cannot set new highs, but those sectors setting new highs is still at the expense of other sectors. That also does not eliminate the possibility of the 3 major indices(SPX/DOW/NAZ) of setting new highs, but again that would be at the expense of other sectors.
Im a believer that the overall market turned bearish in APRIL 1998 which is over 1.5 year ago, and during this period the DOW/SPX/NAZ did set new highs.
I will change my position to long-term bullish(concrete bull leg) when the following occurs:
1) The ANOMOLY of EXTREME SECTOR ROTATION is eliminated
2) A/D improves significantly. For example with a 200 point up day the ADVANCES out number the the DECLINERs by 3:1 to 5:1, not the 1.5:1 to 2:1 as it is now.
3) Significant improvement in the NEW HIGHS/LOWs. For example, for the NEW HIGHs to get back into the 200-350 range consistently, not just one day.
Until then I really wont consider that a new concrete bull leg is in progress, even if the DOW/SPX/NDX sets new highs.
If that was to occur, I will just continue to play the ripples both up and down. If that was to occur, sure I will lose out to those who just held, but so what, as long as I am making money.
For those who are so sure that we are in a new bull leg, then I presume they are mortgaging the house and going long full blast. If they are not then its just BULLS__T!!! And the same for the opposite. For me - I AIN'T SURE OF ANYTHING!!!!! gggggggg Watch, since I turned intermediately bullish the market sells off extremely. ggggggggg
Seeya |
